The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale Las Vegas

Posted on 18. Jun, 2009 by moneybags in MMA Betting Picks, UFC

Main event fight

Clay Guida vs Diego Sanchez

In the past I’ve seen Guida match up well with other fighters. In the Guida vs Diaz fight, Clay was able to utilize wrestling and score points and rabbit punch, while Nate was cool with going to his back. No damage, just scoring. In this fight I think Diego is not a great match for Clay. I think Diego is the better standup fighter, is faster, a little bigger, and will able to stop more takedowns. Any fight Guida or Sanchez are in are exciting as they both have very good cardio in nearly every fight they have been in.

I’m picking Diego Sanchez to win. The odds are creeping higher and higher as the fight date nears, so be careful it just doesn’t get too crazy.

Melvin Guillard vs Gleison Tibau

Tibau has proven to have a tough chin and great submissions. Guillard has proven to be a power puncher who is fast, but has poor cardio and poor submission defense. With Guillard going against a cerebral BJJ artist like Tibau I could see this ending by head and arm choke or a D’Arce.

I’m picking Tibau.

Nate Diaz vs Joe Stevenson

At first glance you could say this will go the same way as the Diaz vs Guida fight. Here is why it won’t. Nate complained after the loss that he was basically just being held and that Guida did little to 0 damage. Now that he has gone through a fight like that and lost, he won’t let that happen against Stevenson. I don’t know who has better takedowns Stevenson or Guida, but in the Octagon, Guida has shown to go for and complete the takedown many more times. So if you think about it, Nate is not likely going to be put on his back as much as he did in the Guida fight and that was a close one. If the same happens here, Diaz is likely to take the V. Plus from a boxing/reach perspective this matchup favors the taller-longer fighter.

I’m picking Diaz to win.

Chris Lytle vs Kevin Burns

I gotta say, I like Kevin Burns here. Kevin was impressive in his last few fights even though he lost his last fight against Anthony Rumble Johnson (which we picked right).

Lytle hasn’t shown to have that punching power he was once known for, is more eager to goto the ground, and is on the other side of the hill of aging. With Kevin Burns’ toughness, I think he can grind a win out.

For the TUF Finale fights:

DeMarques Johnson vs James Wilks

DeMarques Johnson at -350 I don’t think is the greatest play. At those odds, I like James Wilks. Wilks proved to be in shape, and have a variety of strikes most fighters lacked on the show.

Andre Winner vs Ross Pearson

I have no pick for this fight.

Nick Osipczak vs Frank Lester

If Frank learns to throw a right straight between the show and now, he could clip Nick rather easily and win this fight via TKO. From what I saw on the show, I would pick Nick. However, I’m going to guess that Lester worked on his boxing and will surprise with improved power and technique.

Cameron Dollar vs Jason Dent

From what was shown on the show, I like Jason Dent to win as long as the odds don’t get too skewed.

Tags: cardio, clay guida, demarques johnson, diego sanchez, gleison tibau, joe stevenson, melvin guillard, nate diaz, o brien, odds, wilks