I’m Changing My Frank Mir vs Brock Lesnar Pick

Posted on 10. Jul, 2009 by moneybags in MMA Betting Picks, UFC

After seeing the weigh ins, I don’t know how you can’t be excited for this card if you are a fan of mma. Of course I’m biased, since I enjoy the worst of cards just the same.

Grice vs Gugerty fight

It looks like the odds swapped on this one with Grice moving to underdog. I like this play even more with Grice as a dog. I didn’t realize the height difference between the two, but Matt “mini-Couture” Grice will take Gugerty down all fight long and Gugerty will gladly go there to attempt his submissions. If Grice doesn’t get caught, the points add up in Grice’s favor.

Mir vs Lesnar fight

I’ve been watching UFC fights since UFC 1 and have seen every one of them since I was in college. Naturally I’ve seen all of Mir’s fights. After seeing Mir at the weigh ins, Mir is definitely in THE BEST shape he has ever looked coming into any fight before. I actually thought Lesnar had a massive size advantage before this fight, but it doesn’t appear to be as drastic.

With Mir coming into this fight in premiere shape, I would bet the plan is to avoid the early bull rush and look to submit Lesnar in the later rounds, rather than trying for an early submission while Brock is at full strength. Mir will have to avoid Lesnar by circling, punching, and angling off to his weak side. Take Lesnar into deep rounds wear the bull out and matador him by sinking a submission.

I know I’m out on a log by myself on this one now, but with the odds at some places being +200+ I think its a worth a shot. Remember, I called the Joe Warren upset over Kid Yamamoto. Which was and will be almost as shocking as this if Frank Mir wins.

Does the fact that Frank Mir coming into this fight in the best shape that I’ver seen really trump my previous analysis?

Technically no. However, as the odds spread and my biggest question (Frank Mir’s conditioning) answered. I now see large value in Frank Mir.

I’m changing my pick and taking the underdog, Frank Mir to win.

-I love the lock pick on Jon Jones. It shouldn’t be close.

-I still feel the same about the GSP/Alves fight, but Alves shorts were pretty cool.

-I still like my UNDERDOG longshot pick in Paulo Thiago beating Jon Fitch. Nobody is on board with this.

-I’m really liking the Danzig underdog pick.

-CB Dollaway looks like he is going to eat Tom Lawlor up. I don’t think this one is close. Second lock.

-Mark Coleman looked very sad at the weigh ins. Third lock of the night, Bonnar winning.

-I still stand by my Hendo/Bisping pick, but I think its probably the closest fight on the card next to the Danzig/Miller fight. I wouldn’t pay up for Henderson on this one.

-I still like the Stun Gun beating TJ Grant.

Tags: brock lesnar, cb dollaway, danzig, frank mir, grice, gsp, jon fitch, mark coleman, MMA, thiago, UFC, underdog