McDonald. Such a great fight, but I think McDonald will win.

Cub Swanson vs Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier

Swanson has a ton of confidence right now knocking out the last 3 opponents and did VERY well at avoiding the takedown attempts from Ross Pearson. Poirier is similar, but he is not grindy like Pearson. Poirer is crafty. I think Dustin will get the submission at some point and survive Swanson’s devastating punching power. Swanson will be pissed.

Jimi ‘Poster Boy’ Manuwa vs Cyrille ‘Snake’ Diabate

Diabate will annihilate.

Gunnar ‘Gunni’ Nelson vs Jorge ‘The Sandman’ Santiago

I’m thinking the man from Iceland will beat the veteran Santiago who is usually very inconsistent. Nelson.

James Te Huna vs Ryan ‘Big Deal’ Jimmo

Te Huna is a beast, but I think Jimmo will prevail. The guy is smart and crafty and has heavy hands as well.

Matt ‘Deep Waters’ Riddle vs Che ‘Beautiful’ Mills

Riddle is a dangerous and will win.

Terry Etim vs Renee Forte

Etim needs a comeback victory after turning into a highlight reel where he was KO’d by a vicious kick.

Paul ‘Sassangle’ Sass vs Danny ‘Last Call’ Castillo

Pass

Josh ‘The Fluke’ Grispi vs Andy ‘The Little Axe’ Ogle

Grispi needs this.

Stanislav Nedkov vs Tom ‘Kong’ Watson

Nedkov. I’ve slept on this guy in the past. He’s a power puncher and I expect him to connect.

Vaughan Lee vs Motonobu Tezuka

Pass

Ulysses ‘Useless’ Gomez vs Phil ‘Billy’ Harris

Pass

Aldo can win in many more ways and probably will, but with these odds, and Edgar’s ability to overcome, endurance, and experience. I’m going with Edgar just based on those probabilities + the odds.

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Once again. The odds here are juicy for little Nog. Rashad is much faster, but the wrestling of Evans is likely going to be negated as he won’t want to go to the ground with little Nog. Once again, Rashad should win a decision, but, with the odds so skewed, Nog has a puncher’s and submitter’s chance.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva

Overeem is in the UFC and if you never saw him fight before because you are UFC focused, he is a pretty intimidating fighter who destroys pretty much anyone he faces post 2009ish. The odds are heavily skewed here, but Silva is a blackbelt. If Overeem gets on his back, Silva, should have a distinct advantage. He is slightly bigger. Overeem isn’t particularly fast, he is just big and technical. Silva, is less technical, but has that ground and top game, plus fair leg kicks.

I like Silva here in the upset due to the heavy odds skew.

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia

Although favored I don’t see Maia beating Fitch. Unless Hendricks unlocked the glass jaw code on Fitch and he is now able to be KO’d easily.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall

Going with the underdog again. Ian McCall can hang with the faster Mighty Mouse, he should be fine against Benavidez. McCall will have the chip on his shoulder too.

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau

Too close to call depending on how Tibau shows up. I have Dunham in decision.

Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron

Another upset here, I’ve got Hieron taking the upset with experience, better punching. Wrestling is probably better for Woodley, but Hieron is right there in that department.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green

I’m avoiding this fight, because I tend to lean with Volkmann almost no matter what, but odds skewed too much.

Yves Edwards vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg

Edwards. In one of the other favored picks, I like Yves on a roll here.

Dustin Kimura vs. Chico Camus

Pass

Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera

Pass

Awesome fight. The joke is people refer to this as the kids division. So much speed and agility going on at this weight class its amazing. I’ve got Dodson in the underdog position here. Mainly due to the ability to KO people in this division, while Mighty Mouse is more of that take it to the 5th round fighter. Its very difficult to finish guys in this division compared to other divisions, so expect this to go into deep rounds, but Dodson has that KO power in his back pocket so I think its a good bet here.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira

Teixeira is a favorite in this fight. Jackson has been getting discounted the last few fights, but the spread tends to tighten up closer to fight time due to Rampage fans dropping money on him. I think Rampage has a shot here as Teixeira hasn’t fought someone of Rampage’s caliber. The problem has been Quinton’s cardio has been garbage for I don’t know how long and Glover looked fantastic against Teixeira. If Moldanado’s punches were Rampage’s there is a good chance Glover would have been KO’d in this fight. As Fabio is technically a weight class lower and should be there instead.

Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone

This is going to be a good fight, both fighters will put a pounding on each other. Pettis is more dynamic, faster, but smaller than Cerrone. Cerrone takes hits while Pettis will avoid when needbe.

Pettis is slight favorite here, I think thats fair. This one goes to decision in Pettis favor.

Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas

T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman

TJ Grant is probably a little more grindier (sic) while Wiman is more active. I’m leaning towards Grant here.

Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki

Guida.

Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Bader is a heavy favorite, I wouldn’t take Bader in a bet here, due to the risk, but he will probably win. If I was going to place, it would be with Vlady.

David Mitchell vs. Simeon Thoresen

None.

Mike Russow vs. Shawn Jordan

Mike Russow is going to win this. Old vs new, but I got the old guy. Some might play Jordan here in the underdog position, but I still like Russow to win this.

Pascal Krauss vs. Mike Stumpf

None.

Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer

None.

In the first fight Cain was injured and do Santos just threw one overhand right that ko’d Cain. Cain is going to want to take this fight to the ground and do his ground work which includes great top control and GnP. Dos Santos will keep the fight standing and use his reach and power to hurt Cain. Junior has proven to be incredible tough to take down. He has rarely been on his back. Roy Nelson couldn’t do it, but Cain is on another level in the takedown department. However, I think Dos Santos power will be too much again and win the fight.

Jim Miller vs Joe Lauzon

The jits of Lauzon will be neutralized by Miller’s experience. On the feet Miller is better and has way more output. Lauzon is more powerful for sure.

Tim Boetsch vs Constantinos Philippou

Phillippou will win, because Boetsch doesn’t protect his chin enough. Expect a teeping good time though from Boetsch.

Yushin Okami vs Alan Belcher

Okami is bigger, Belcher is craftier. I think Okami is going to get his decision win.

Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson

Leben just cause.

Brad Pickett vs Eddie Wineland

Might be FON. Pickett is back.

Erik Perez vs Byron Bloodworth

Perez

Melvin Guillard vs Jamie Varner

Guillard. He is now too well rounded and too powerful for Varner imo. The issue will be the wrestling of Varner and if he can keep Melvin on the mat.

Michael Johnson vs Myles Jury

Going with Jury here.

Todd Duffee vs Philip De Fries

Duffee – he’s back.

John Moraga vs Chris Cariaso

Max Holloway vs Leonard Garcia

Ah shit you know who I’m picking don’t you? Stephan Bonnar. He wants to be remembered as the fighter who beat Anderson not the guy who lost to Forrest. At +800 its too juicy.

Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado

This is going to be FOTN. Both these fighters have such high talent in their boxing. Glover is a beast and I don’t see who can beat him right now, but Maldonado is pretty awesome fighter as well. Less the power puncher than Glover, but still. Underdogs in these type of fights are good plays.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman

Big Nog is old at this point and is very battered. Herman who imo has a lot of potential, but has looked out of shape in a few of his last fights. I know he is going to breakout and the UFC have given him a huge name to go against. However, this is more for Big Nog in his hometown than it is for Herman to win. I’m leaning towards Big Nogueira winning this fight. Herman presents no danger on the ground and only in the standup. Nog has better cardio, and his boxing is on par with Hermans. If this gets past the 1st round then Nog’s odds go up as favorite to win.

Jon Fitch vs Erick Silva

Such an interesting fight. Will Fitch’ grinding wrestling tight to the body style neutralize Erick Silva’s dynamite power and speed? I think it might. Fitch if he gets a hold of Silva could potentially take him down and grind out a win or possibly even submit. I like Fitch here as a deserved underdog.

Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

Phil Davis

Demian Maia vs Rick Story

This fight slight favorite toward Maia and I think that is about right. With story’s wrestling essentially nulled by way of not wanting to go to the ground with Maia, that leaves each fighter’s standup game. Maia’s isn’t bad anymore. Story’s is ok too. Advantage Maia. I think he will win. This will be a huge feather in Story’s cap if he can win.

Rony Mariano Bezerra vs Sam Sicilia

Fun, but pass.

Gleison Tibau vs Francisco Trinaldo

Pass

Diego Brandao vs Joey Gambino

Pass

Sergio Moraes vs Renee Forte

Pass

Luiz Cane vs Chris Camozzi

Luiz Cane

Reza Madadi vs Cristiano Marcello

Pass

Browne is a KO monster and Silva kinda does his thing sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Fedor being one of the times it works. For some reason I’m feeling the upset here with Silva winning. I think there is a chance that Browne gets tired and Silva takes over. The guy can take a beating and Browne hasn’t been in a war yet.

Jussier da Silva vs John Dodson

Dodson, nobody can beat him. The guy he is facing is a straight up submission fighter. Dodson is a slippery worm and won’t get caught in a choke. Aside from that Dodson is an excellent striker with incredible agility. He could secretly be a member of the X-men.

Josh Neer vs Justin Edwards

Neer. The aggressor and now Stockton trained will win.

Jeremy Stephens vs Yves Edwards

Stephens has gotten really good at dealing with the ground guys. Yves is good everywhere. Edwards is likely going to dance a lot and not play into Stephens game. Looking for a decision in this one. Stephens is favored, and I’m ok with it, but not big.

Danny Castillo vs Michael Johnson

Have to go with Johnson here. He’s shown up lately. These two fighters are very inconsistent with their performances, but Johnson is the more relentless of the two and the much better takedown artist.

Thiago Tavares vs Dennis Hallman

Tavares. This will be a test of ground games. Tavares is quite good as is Hallman in their respective grappling disciplines. In fact the ground game is everything to Hallman and Tavares is very good there. Hallman hasn’t fought a guy with this much ground talent in awhile. I think Tavares will be able to fend off the RNC and win a decision.

Jacob Volkmann vs Shane Roller

Roller is the better puncher. I lean that way here. Although I tend to like betting with Volkmann, Roller I think is equal in the wrestling or better, has better improved striking, and better ground game. Volkmann is more relentless and probably better conditioning. I like Roller as an underdog.

Diego Nunes vs Bart Palaszewski

Nunes will do enough to not get hit, take Bart down and grind a deece out.

Darren Uyenoyama vs Phil Harris

Pass

Carlo Prater vs Marcus LeVesseur

Pass

Mike Pierce vs Aaron Simpson

Awesome fight. Could be FOTN. I lean towards Mike Pierce here as he is more conditioned, younger, and crisper. Where Simpson will walk into damage willfully get tired, but have enough energy to not get taken down as much as he should be.

All of these drops represent my UFC 152 picks so that is why I’m posting them.

Jon Jones. Its going to have to be a lucky shot and have to happen early if Belfort is going to win this one. The length is too much of a problem.

Joseph Benavidez vs Demetrious Johnson

Benavidez

Michael Bisping vs Brian Stann

Bisping

Matt Hamill vs Vladimir Matyushenko

Hamill

Charles Oliveira vs Cub Swanson

Swanson

Igor Pokrajac vs Vinny Magalhaes

Pokrajac

Evan Dunham vs T.J. Grant

Dunham

Lance Benoist vs Sean Pierson

Pierson

Jim Hettes vs Marcus Brimage

Seth Baczynski vs Simeon Thoresen

Baczynski

Mitch Gagnon vs Walel Watson

Charlie Brenneman vs Kyle Noke

Brenneman

Rua. Easily.

Light Heavyweight bout: Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader

Machida.

Flyweight bout: Ulysses Gomez vs John Moraga

No play.

Light Heavyweight bout: Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

Phil Davis.

Heavyweight bout: Phil De Fries vs Oli Thompson

Pass.

Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs Jamie Varner

Varner is susceptible to

Featherweight bout: Manvel Gamburyan vs Michihiro Omigawa

Omigawa has surprised the last two times, but I always go with Gamburyan who lets me down more than not.

Manny has had a very tough streak of fights leading into this one winning 1 out of 4. Omigawa is getting old and his record is approaching even if he loses this match.

I have to go with the younger fighter here. Manny.

Welterweight bout: Mike Swick vs DaMarques Johnson

Big time ring rust for Swick. Hasn’t fought in two years. Johnson has performed well (except for his last loss) even in losing. Swick is the better striker with Johnson probably having an advantage on the ground.

Swick will probably be underdog here due to being out of the game for so long, but I like him to win in the dog position.

Featherweight bout: Josh Grispi vs Rani Yahya

Grispi has a lot of potential even still after as many fights as he has. Yahya is a one trick pony that has a really good submission game. Yahya hasn’t done well against wrestlers Benevidez or Chad Mendes. Grispi will probably win. Yahya is a wild card and needs his takedown or he loses. Once Yahya takes the back though, guys have big problems getting him off. Depending on the odds I like Grispi winning.

Featherweight bout: Cole Miller vs Nam Phan

Should be an awesome fight as both fighter are rarely boring. I’m going with the more dynamic and harder striker Nam Phan.

Bantamweight Urijah Faber vs Renan Barao

Renan is Barao. I want Urijah to win, but I don’t see it happening unless Faber can score takedowns and avoid being submitted. So a lay n pray strategy.

Middleweight Hector Lombard vs Tim Boetsch

Hector Lombard = should be a heavy favorite. Boetsch has surprised though. Boetsch has fought heavier and has taken punishment in the past. Yeh Lombard brings massive power punching. If this fight can get past 30 seconds, then Boetsch has a good chance of winning. I know I can’t believe I’m saying this, but this has to be Boetsch’s camp strategy. Go deep in the fight, use the teep, get the fight to the ground. Lombard is an ace Judo artist so expect hip tosses in the clinch. If the odds are crazy skewed, I say take the flyer with Boetsch.

Heavyweight Cheick Kongo vs Shawn Jordan

Here is the problem. Ex LSU football player Jordan is a juggernaut, literally, he was a fullback and Kongo doesn’t do great against those type of fighters. However, Kongo has 4 inches on Jordan. The reach will be a problem. If Kongo is aggressive he can win this fight. I don’t think this fight ends quickly.

Want to see the odds, but I like Kongo going the distance or winning outright. Jordan only wins early imo.

Welterweight Brian Ebersole vs James Head

Ebersole.

Welterweight Chris Clements vs Matt Riddle

Too risky to play.

Preliminary UFC 149 Card

Middleweight bout Court McGee vs Nick Ring

I see Court McGee winning this via decision with his much improved striking game. Should be a good fight.

Bantamweight Roland Delorme vs Francisco Rivera

Pass

Light Heavyweight Ryan Jimmo vs Anthony Perosh

Perosh has surprised me many times. He is a tough sob that once he gets guys on the ground he wins. Jimmo equally is tough and stand with anyone. Perosh can’t handle Jimmo’s power and pace. However, if this fight gets to the ground, I see Perosh winning. Jimmo hasn’t fought a ground guy like Perosh yet so this will be a tough test if the fight goes there. On the feet Jimmo wins easily.

Bantamweight Bryan Caraway vs Mitch Gagnon

Caraway