WEC 47 Predictions

Posted on 01. Mar, 2010 by moneybags.

Main Card

(WEC Bantamweight Title Bout)

Brian Bowles (8-0-0) vs Dominick Cruz  (14-1-0)
Bowles too much strength on the feet for Dominick Cruz. Cruz is a great don’t get me wrong, Bowles is very strong for his division.

Its more common for these lower weight fights to go to a judges decision, but I think Bowles has enough to finish Cruz.

Miguel Torres (36-2-0) vs. Joseph Benavidez  (11-1-0)
Torres good on his feet and on the ground. I don’t see this fight going anywhere, but to the judges. Benavidez has excellent submission defense, and can handle the boxing just fine. He is not as good as a technical striker as Torres, which may give Torres a slight edge on the feet. However, expect Benavidez to take Torres down, Benavidez to avoid the submission, and potentially take a decision. If the fight doesn’t hit the mat, then Torres should win based on number of strikes. Expect kicks and long jabs from Torres.

Jens Pulver ( 22-12-1)vs Javier Vazques (13-3-0)
Another great fight that has a high chance of going to the judges.
Pulver has trouble against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelts and Vazques has had trouble against good strikers.

I lean towards Jens Pulver in this fight. I think Jens is a good commentator, hope he fills that role when he is done fighting.

L.C. Davis ( 15-2-0) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (12-3-0)
Fight of the night?

As long as the odds aren’t heavily skewed I like LC Davis in this one. If they get crazy, Taurosevicius.

Karen Darabedyan ( 9-1-0) vs. Bart Palaszewski (32-13-0)
This guy Darabedyan looks like a banger with Judo skills. I always go with that is my background as well. Darabedyan.

Preliminary Card

Diego Nunes (13-1-0) vs. Leonard Garcia (13-5-0)

Scott Jorgensen (8-3-0)  vs. Chad George (11-3-0)

Chad Mendes (5-0-0)  vs. Erik Koch (9-0-0)

Anthony Pettis (7-1-0) vs. Danny Castillo (8-2-0)

Courtney Buck (6-2-0) vs. Fredson Paixao (8-3-0)

Bendy Casimir (19-5-2) vs. Ricardo Lamas (7-1-0)

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Strikeforce Challengers

Posted on 26. Feb, 2010 by geistmeister.

Strikeforce Challengers

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2010

MAIN CARD

WOMEN’S 135 LBS CHAMPIONSHIP
SARAH KAUFMAN (10-0-0) VS TAKAYO HASHI (12-1-0)
TREVOR PRANGLEY (22-5-0) VS KARL AMOUSSOU (7-1- 1)
LUKE ROCKHOLD (6-1-0) VS PAUL BRADLEY (12-1-0)
JAMES TERRY (1-0-0) VS TAREC SAFFIEDINE (7-2-0)
RAUL CASTILLO (6-0-0)  VS YANCY MEDEIROS (4-0-0)

UNDERCARD

CHRIS STEWART  VS SAMUEL BRACAMNONTE
TRISTAN ARENAL VS GEORGE MILLER
JESSE TOBAR VS PHIL BALDACCI
RENEE ROBINSON VS LILIA SALAS
JAVIER GONZALEZ VS TIM HESS
RONALD CARILLO VS ANTHONY DE LOS SANTOS

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Stephan Bonnar vs Krzysztof Soszynski Fight Is Amazing

Posted on 21. Feb, 2010 by moneybags.

The Stephan Bonnar vs Krzysztof Soszynski fight from UFC 110 is amazing.

This is like Stephan Bonnar vs Forest Griffin 1. Maybe better. Round 3 starting now.

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Cain Velasquez Knocks Out Minotauro Nogueira In Amazing Fashion

Posted on 21. Feb, 2010 by moneybags.

This is the best I’ve seen him look. His stand up looked absolutely incredible. I’ve doubted Cain’s legitimacy (slightly), but this was it man. Amazing.

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UFC 110 Predictions

Posted on 10. Feb, 2010 by moneybags.

Live from Sydney, Australia – Saturday Feb 20th on PPV

Main Card

Antonio Nogueira (32-5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0-0
Is Cain’s top game big trouble for any fighter yes, but if there is any heavyweight where his strength’s put him in trouble, is against a heavy like Big Nog. Take downs? Sure he can get them. Submission defense? Might be a problem against a guy as slick as Nogueira. Plus, Nogueira’s boxing right now is at its best, and imo, its better than Cain’s.

Bodog has Cain Velasquez favored @ -125, but I like Nogueira to win w/ -105 odds

Bet on this fight

Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) vs.  Michael Bisping (18-2-0)
Bisping is going to try to get his licks and get out, but his best shot at winning is a ground game.

Bisping has fought one other fighter that is as zombieish as Silva and is as devastating puncher as Silva, that is Dan Henderson. They both have similar toughness and similar KO power. Bisping hasn’t been know as a KO puncher, but more of a finesse/overwhelming type fighter.

This fight has the odds favoring “The Axe Murderer” Silva @ -155. I think it could be a closer fight though as Bisping’s technical skills, speed, and smarts will have Silva chasing him all over the octagon.

Bisping is +125 @ Bodog, and I think he will take a decision victory

Bet on this fight

Joe Stevenson (31-10-0) vs.  George Sotiropoulos ( 11-2-0)
George’s top game imo is too strong. You have two good jiu-jitsu players, but Sotiropoulus will have height and reach. He is good on his feet. Stevenson, although not a 1 trick pony with a sick guillotine, but he is on the easier side to shut down.

If Stevenson can hurt Sotiropoulos early (by some miracle), then George is going to have a very hard time, as Stevenson is a good finisher and is very difficult to stop once he gets top control. Like I said though, at the upper echelon of MMA, Stevenson’s strengths, can be stopped rather easily.

Bodog has the Australian, Sotiropoulos @ +240 and I like him to win.

Bet on this fight

Keith Jardine (15-6-1) vs. Ryan Bader (10-0-0)
Jardine is the underdog in this one and I like Jardine here. His ability to crush legs and takeaway the takedown ability will be key.

Bader is trouble for most fighter’s due to his size, takedown defense, and takedown capabilities. Jardine though is equally trouble for most fighters due to his unpredictable style.

The way Bader’s standup is, allows Jardine to utilize his short hooks really well. I think it will be a problem for Bader.

Jardine is +125 and I like it.

Bet on this fight

Mirko  “Cro Cop” Filipović (25-7-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7-0) Anthony Perosh

Cro Cop is taking on an unknown who is taking the fight on two days notice. Not sure if this will carry odds or not. If they aren’t crazy, I’d take Cro Cop.

Bet on this fight

Preliminary Card

Elvis Sinosic (8-11-2) vs. Chris Haseman (20-16-0)
The battle of journeymen? Wow Elvis Sinosic is back. Very good on the UFC to get him in this fight as Elvis is from Australia. Elvis has been in the UFC for nearly 10 years now, but on and off. He has only one one fight out of his 7 in the UFC. However, he did sub Jeremy Horn in his prime. That was enough clout to have him come back despite losing so many fights in the Octagon.

Two of Australia’s local fighter’s who frankly haven’t fought in awhile with any reasonable consistency.

I’ll go with Elvis Sinosic here based on familiarity.

Stephan Bonnar (11-6-0) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1)
Bonnar is not a good finisher, but Soszynski does have a few finishing goto moves. If this fight goes to a decision, I do like Bonnar to take the victory.

Chris Lytle (27-17-5) vs. Brian Foster (15-4-0)
Foster is pretty good and shows promise. The UFC wants to put an exciting fight down under, they call up Chris Lytle, who puts on a show in every outing.

Foster has the youth, but Lytle has the ground game and the chin. Foster will stay in that pocket and trade with Lytle. That strategy favors Lytle imo.

C.B. Dollaway (9-2-0) vs. Goran Reljic (8-0-0)
Goran Reljic is such a great fighter. I like Reljic by submission.

James Te-Huna (11-4-0) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-6-0)
Not familiar with, so I will pass.

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UFC 109 Relentless Predictions

Posted on 31. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

February 6th Live on PPV

UFC 109 Main Card

Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman
As good as Coleman was, he is an incredibly slower version of himself. He beat Stephan Bonner on heart and a few takedowns. If Randy comes out anywhere near as good as he did in the Lesnar and Nogeuria fights, which both he lost, he should easily beat Coleman. Coleman, however, is probably training for this fight like he never has before. I don’t know this for sure, but always showed in Coleman’s fights that he never did proper modern training pre-fight. His cardio always fell short and his skillset never improved. Randy on the other hand has stair stepped upwards in the skill level as well as overall cardio.

Being a -550 favorite is a different story. I don’t love the odds for this one, because Couture is always susceptible to a KO, but I don’t think Coleman possesses that threat.

I’m going to be blown away if Coleman wins this fight. I like Randy to win and Bodog has Couture @ -550

Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen
I understand the odds here. I’m surprised they are not higher. Sonnen is a great overall fighter with a wrestler’s specialty, while Marquardt has speedily evolved into an elite complete fighter. Ever since his loss to Anderson Silva, its obvious he has been driven to push every bit of his already high skillset. Before the Anderson Silva Marquardt fought slower and just all around different.

Marquardt will be too much in this fight and will win.

I like Marquardt here to win and Bodog has Marquardt @ -525

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago
I think the difference in this fight is going to be the size and strength of Mike Swick. Thiago is a great overall fighter who a few fights ago KO’d Swick’s teammate Josh Koshcheck.

Strengths will reach and speed for Swick while the strengths for Thiago will be the ground game and submissions.

I don’t see how Swick loses this fight, so I lean that way.

Intertops has Swick @ -227

Demian Maia vs Dan Miller
As much of a fan I am of Dan Miller, I don’t know what he brings to this fight that Demian Maia can’t fend off. For sure, Dan Miller is the better striker. However, is he good enough to stop Demian Maia with strikes?

If Dan Miller can outstrike Maia, this fight is going to a decision and based on how the ground fighting is scored in the UFC, this puts Miller in the advantage.

Most likely neither fighter is going to submit the other due to their blackbelts in jiu-jitsu (Miller’s is fresh black color, and Maia’s is grey). Maia’s mma jiu-jitsu has shown to be absolutely the best in the Octagon thus far.

Based on the way ground game is scored, and Miller’s better stand up fighting experience, I like Dan Miller here in the underdog spot.

Bodog has Miller as +325 underdog

Matt Serra vs  Frank Trigg
I definitely would like to see Serra win this fight. If you haven’t seen his pre-fight UFC blogs on YouTube they are really funny. “Hey Longo! Where’s the TP buddy?”

If Trigg is going to win this fight its going to be with ground control. Serra isn’t going to be able to take Trigg down without jumping guard and this fight is likely going to decision.

Serra can win via a submissions, but it won’t be from the bottom.

In reality this fight is likely to go to a decision. Trigg doesn’t have the weapons to take Serra out, but Serra does have the weapons to take Trigg out.

Matt Serra is favored at Bodog @ -155, and I lean that way

UFC 109 Preliminary Card

Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz
Too much wrestling in Danzig’s corner and top game control, but Buchholz has a puncher’s chance.

Melvin Guillard  vs Ronnys Torres

Phillipe Nover vs  Rob Emerson
Seems like this is a great matchup. After Emerson’s last few fights, he has shown unbelieveable heart and overall improvement that has been blatantly noticeable even to the untrained eye.

Nover looked best on the TUF show, but hasn’t tasted victory since. Emerson is not the guy you want to go against when you’re up against the wall.

I like Emerson to win this fight.

No odds posted yet.

Brian Stann vs  Phil Davis

Tim Hague vs   Chris Tuchscherer

Mostapha Al-turk vs.  Rolles Gracie

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Strikeforce Miami Diaz vs Zaromskis

Posted on 23. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

Nick Diaz VS Marius Zaromskis

Nick Diaz hasn’t faced a striker like Zaromskis before. Maybe Gomi in his hey day, but the intensity that Zaromskis brings is like Diego Sanchez mixed with a K-1 striker mixed with BJ Penn’s accuracy and this looks like it could be a Zaromskis victory.

Zaromskis is a pressing fighter, but so is Nick. Marius hasn’t really fought a fighter like Nick yet who throws alot of punches, keeps attacking, and strikes from all kinds of angles.

Zaromskis is good, really really good, but he hasn’t been ground tested, and he hasn’t had his cardio tested in a fight the way Diaz is going push it.

Nick Diaz is favored -210 @ Bodog and am PSYCHED for this fight.

Cristiane Cyborg Santos vs Marloes Coenen

Coenen is a very experienced fighter, but you have never heard of her before because Women’s MMA is not a well known subject in North America yet. Coenen has fought over 20 fights to Santos 9. Coenen is a very cerebral fighter who has a great ground game and a very good striking game as well. This will be the biggest stage Marloes Coenen has fought on. Santos can bring tremendous power, speed, accuracy, and technique. Coenen also has technique, speed, accuracy, but lacks power in comparison. We haven’t seen Santos ground game tested, but based on who she is training with, you have to think its right up there.

If Santos is power, Coenen is finesse. This should be a good fight.

Intertops has Santos @ -556 and Coenen @ +350, because of the odds, I like Marloes Coenen

Robbie Lawler vs Melvin Manhoef

If Lawler is smart, he will get Manhoef to the ground and utilize all those wrestling skills he has acquired over the years and put Manhoef away. If Lawler decides to swing his cock with Manhoef, I think Robbie will get knocked out. Manhoef is a dangerous puncher and has fought at the K-1 level of striking. This means Manhoef will typically be able to put combinations together that the usual MMA fighter is just not used to doing. Especially American MMA fighters who are traditionally more wrestling minded, which Robbie is.

I just can’t decide if Lawler is going to do the smart or stupid strategy. Now that I think about it though. Robbie isn’t exactly Mr. Submission, so that leaves Manhoef a little more wiggle room in the “not worried about being submitted” department. Add that up with the chance of Lawler wanting to test hands with Manhoef, Lawler not really ever facing a guy who can kick like Manhoef, and you get advantage Manhoef.

Manhoef is favored @ Bodog -200 and that is where I lean

Hershel Walker vs Greg Nagy

Hershel Walker is favored -500 @ Bodog, but I’m avoiding.

Bobby Lashley vs Wes Sims

The fight has been announced. Even though Wes Sims is extremely experienced, Bobby Lashley presents that Brock Lesnar type size difference and wrestling ability that will give any fighter problems. However, this is Wes Sims, extra tall, extra susceptible to being taken down.

Lashley should pound out either an exciting first round finish, or if Sims is prepared a Lashley wins a boring 3 round decision.

Either way I like Lashley to win, but the odds @ -1100 makes this fight totally unavoidable for me. However, Bodog does have odds on this fight if you like it.

Undercard:

Jay Hieron vs Joe Riggs

Very tough fight to call here. As their skillset is very similar. Both can KO people on their feet and both do well in the GNP. However, both are not great off their back, or at least they used to not be.

This fight brings together two former UFC fighters from the mid 2000 era now who have had to fight outside the UFC after being cut, but now in the number two organization. These guys have probably been through alot emotionally in terms of the business end of MMA. This fight is probably going to be an emotional one and wouldn’t be surprised to see either fighter crying at the end of it.

Riggs likes to be everywhere except on his back. He has had major back problems in the past, but it appears from his recent fight streak he has that mended. Heiron has really had a nice fight win streak going carried over from his days in the IFL.

Due to Hieron’s wrestling ability I can see him taking Riggs down and controlling the fight.

Bodog has Hieron @ -325

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I Don’t Care About The Money, I Just Care About Being Right

Posted on 12. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

UFC Fight Night picks go 4-0. That is 7-0 over the past two events.

I have to say that I was very impressed with Tom Lawlor’s performance and he lost a very tough fought match and has nothing to be ashamed of. Simpson won on heart, conditioning, and points. Lawlor looked bigger and had excellent striking.

In the Diaz vs Maynard fight, after seeing how bad the reach advantage was I started to worry. However, the analysis was correct. Maynard would be more active and more accurate on the feet. He avoided the ground and took the decision. It was weird that one judge saw it 30-27 Maynard, and another saw 29-28 Diaz, but Maynard got the vote from the third judge taking the split decision. The reach was a big issue, and Diaz did some very predictable head movement. Maynard also did some predictable combos as well. Both could have fainted a little more and then their setups would’ve worked. Everytime Diaz ducked down, it looked like he was folding himself in half, Maynard should have exited the pocket with a hook to the side of the body he was exiting to. Or faint to uppercut would have caught Diaz. Instead of the loopers Diaz threw, he could have just thrown straight punches all night and it would have caused all kinds of trouble for Maynard.

The Evan Dunham / Efrain Escudero fight was great. Efrain came out ultra confident while not doing much thinking he is a technical puncher. Dunham is a zombie with more skills. If the zombie fighter does not have greater skills, the zombie fighter will likely lose because they will get picked apart. You look at the Simpson fight as an example. Greater wrestling skills, greater conditioning. In the end that is what won the match. Dunham locked on a sick arm bar, but really that became a shoulder lock submission before Escudero tapped with some serious arm damage. I swear I thought his arm was going to pop any second.

Amir Sadollah had too much arsenal for Brad Blackburn. All three judges scored it 30-27.

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Congrats To Evan Dunham and Congrats To Me

Posted on 11. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

Evan Dunham submitted Efrain Escudero which will be ruled as an arm bar, but it was starting to look like Aoki’s recent shoulder joint twist. Dunham was a 2-1+ dog.

Once Evan Dunham weathered Escudero’s storm, his reach and variety of ways to win, and skillset took over.

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WEC Henderson vs Varner Picks Go 3-0

Posted on 11. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

I picked those 3 fights 3-0 not exactly a guarantee other than the Mike Brown fight.

The Varner, Henderson fight started getting skewed towards Varner and was favored pre-fight as well. I liked Henderson the whole way and he won in the way he always wins. Tires a mother out and then slips in a submission.

Get ready for UFC Fight Night.

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