Strikeforce Miami Diaz vs Zaromskis

Posted on 23. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

Nick Diaz VS Marius Zaromskis

Nick Diaz hasn’t faced a striker like Zaromskis before. Maybe Gomi in his hey day, but the intensity that Zaromskis brings is like Diego Sanchez mixed with a K-1 striker mixed with BJ Penn’s accuracy and this looks like it could be a Zaromskis victory.

Zaromskis is a pressing fighter, but so is Nick. Marius hasn’t really fought a fighter like Nick yet who throws alot of punches, keeps attacking, and strikes from all kinds of angles.

Zaromskis is good, really really good, but he hasn’t been ground tested, and he hasn’t had his cardio tested in a fight the way Diaz is going push it.

Nick Diaz is favored -210 @ Bodog and am PSYCHED for this fight.

Cristiane Cyborg Santos vs Marloes Coenen

Coenen is a very experienced fighter, but you have never heard of her before because Women’s MMA is not a well known subject in North America yet. Coenen has fought over 20 fights to Santos 9. Coenen is a very cerebral fighter who has a great ground game and a very good striking game as well. This will be the biggest stage Marloes Coenen has fought on. Santos can bring tremendous power, speed, accuracy, and technique. Coenen also has technique, speed, accuracy, but lacks power in comparison. We haven’t seen Santos ground game tested, but based on who she is training with, you have to think its right up there.

If Santos is power, Coenen is finesse. This should be a good fight.

Intertops has Santos @ -556 and Coenen @ +350, because of the odds, I like Marloes Coenen

Robbie Lawler vs Melvin Manhoef

If Lawler is smart, he will get Manhoef to the ground and utilize all those wrestling skills he has acquired over the years and put Manhoef away. If Lawler decides to swing his cock with Manhoef, I think Robbie will get knocked out. Manhoef is a dangerous puncher and has fought at the K-1 level of striking. This means Manhoef will typically be able to put combinations together that the usual MMA fighter is just not used to doing. Especially American MMA fighters who are traditionally more wrestling minded, which Robbie is.

I just can’t decide if Lawler is going to do the smart or stupid strategy. Now that I think about it though. Robbie isn’t exactly Mr. Submission, so that leaves Manhoef a little more wiggle room in the “not worried about being submitted” department. Add that up with the chance of Lawler wanting to test hands with Manhoef, Lawler not really ever facing a guy who can kick like Manhoef, and you get advantage Manhoef.

Manhoef is favored @ Bodog -200 and that is where I lean

Hershel Walker vs Greg Nagy

Hershel Walker is favored -500 @ Bodog, but I’m avoiding.

Bobby Lashley vs Wes Sims

The fight has been announced. Even though Wes Sims is extremely experienced, Bobby Lashley presents that Brock Lesnar type size difference and wrestling ability that will give any fighter problems. However, this is Wes Sims, extra tall, extra susceptible to being taken down.

Lashley should pound out either an exciting first round finish, or if Sims is prepared a Lashley wins a boring 3 round decision.

Either way I like Lashley to win, but the odds @ -1100 makes this fight totally unavoidable for me. However, Bodog does have odds on this fight if you like it.

Undercard:

Jay Hieron vs Joe Riggs

Very tough fight to call here. As their skillset is very similar. Both can KO people on their feet and both do well in the GNP. However, both are not great off their back, or at least they used to not be.

This fight brings together two former UFC fighters from the mid 2000 era now who have had to fight outside the UFC after being cut, but now in the number two organization. These guys have probably been through alot emotionally in terms of the business end of MMA. This fight is probably going to be an emotional one and wouldn’t be surprised to see either fighter crying at the end of it.

Riggs likes to be everywhere except on his back. He has had major back problems in the past, but it appears from his recent fight streak he has that mended. Heiron has really had a nice fight win streak going carried over from his days in the IFL.

Due to Hieron’s wrestling ability I can see him taking Riggs down and controlling the fight.

Bodog has Hieron @ -325

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Strikeforce Evolution Predictions

Posted on 15. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

CUNG LE (6-0) vs SCOTT SMITH (17-6)

One of the most dynamic strikers in MMA is Cung Le. I’ve mentioned previously about the way Le uses momentum of the opponent against themselves when talking about Jon Jones, Cung probably does it the best. Then you combine the ability to deliver huge devastating kicks, like mule kicks, windmill kicks, and actually land them, gives Cung a huge striking advantage over Scott Smith. I’m a huge fan of Scott Smith because he has been in some of the most exciting finishes of all time. Being a martial artist myself, I used to watch almost anything on ESPN that was martial arts related. Cung Le used to be in the Sanda tournaments and always won – 17-0 in fact. San Shou martial art has an emphasis on throws and putting taking the opponent down, however, not the traditional way such as a wrestler’s takedown. The way they do it is trips, sweeps, and striking an opponent when they are at off balance points. Fighters don’t have someone like this to train with and is why MMA fighters have trouble with Cung Le. Smith will have trouble as well.

Cung is too much in the striking department in terms of variety, too much cardio, too much in the judo/sansho department. Smith doesn’t take anyone down. So in terms of how a fighter can score points Cung Le wins that possibility hands down. If you incorporate KO ability they both have it, but Smith is likely to have more one punch KO power.

Bottomline: Cung Le will win.

JOSH THOMSON (16-2) VS GILBERT MELENDEZ (16-2) – LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP

These buddies meet again after they have each won one fight with Thomson winning the last meeting. It actually wasn’t even close the last time they fought. Thomson has been out with another injury. I lean towards Thomson again, but this one is very close, because you never know if Thomson’s injury is fully healed.

I would avoid.

RONALDO “JACARE” SOUZA (10-2) VS MATT “THE LAW” LINDLAND (21-6)

Should be a good match. Souza is a great grappler and so is Lindland. Neither is a particularly good striker on the feet. Expecting this to go to a decision.

As far as grappling matches go, I would lean towards Souza to win.

MUHAMMED “KING MO” LAWAL (5-0) VS “IRON” MIKE WHITEHEAD

Whitehead has improved tremendously in his last few fights that I’ve seen, however, Lawal will be way too dynamic.

I like “King Mo” to win

“RUTHLESS” ROBBIE LAWLER (16-5) VS TREVOR PRANGLEY Undetermined Opponent

This will be updated as soon as we know who the opponent is.

Under Card

ANTWAIN “THE JUGGERNAUT” BRITT (9-3) VS SCOTT LIGHTY (5-0)
Scott Lighty is a beast. I’m picking Lighty.

BRYAN TRAVERS (13-1) VS DAISUKE NAKAMURA (20-11)

If you ever want to see a fighter who is an armbar and kumura specialist, its Nakamura. Many American fighters haven’t fought against someone like this yet. Good to see Nakamura state side. There is a chance Nakamura could lose this on points since submission attempts aren’t scored like they are in Japan. However, I think Travers hasn’t faced someone of Nakamura’s ability and therefore Nakamura will be able to catch Travers in one of his patented subs.

Nakamura via submission in the second.

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Strikeforce Fedor Emelianenko vs Brett Rogers

Posted on 31. Oct, 2009 by moneybags.

Fedor vs Brett Rogers

Look Brett has big hands and if he touches a fighters chin they are in trouble. Will he be able to catch Fedor? Highly unlikely. The odds are Fedor -556 and Brett at +356 over at Intertops

I don’t think Brett has a chance if this fight gets on the ground. If you look at the Hong Man Choi fight you had a guy who had the length and size to cause Fedor problems, however, HMC has horrendous submission defense. The fight ended in Hong being armbarred inside 2 minutes, but Fedor’s face look decently damaged. Ok so take Brett Rogers as a guy who knows how to punch and hopefully doesn’t play on the ground in Fedor’s world, and you have a chance. A slim chance, but a chance. A puncher’s chance.

I can’t pick against Fedor here, but it would be incredible if Rogers can pull this off. Fedor via ankle lock, RNC, or knee bar , probably not by his goto armbar.

Jake Shields vs Jason Miller

Shields is a badass on the ground with good striking, but not great. Miller is almost the exact same fighter. With this fight I look to the Dream matchup of Miller vs Jacare where I thought Jason was winning the fight, but accidentally kneed Jacare when he was on the ground. Under DREAM rules kicking to the head is not allowed when the fighter is on the ground. Under PRIDE rules, it was fully allowed.
Here is the fight:

Is Jacare’s top game better than Jake Shields? I think so, but not incredibly so. Miller can escape it. So with Miller as a 2-1 underdog I like that as a bet against Shields in the middleweight championship.

Gergard Mousasi vs Rameau Thierry Sokodjou

Sokodjou hasn’t shown much since is KO of Ricardo Arona. He has been so hit or miss and Mousasi has been on such a hot streak against top competition. I see Gergard winning this easily on the feet and even more so if it goes to the mat. So even at -455 I still like Gergard Mousasi to win this one.

Fabricio Werdum vs Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva

Silva is too slow, but if Werdum makes a mistake, Silva has a shot. This is definitely Bigfoot’s best test so far. With Werdum favored -164 and Bigfoot at +125, I like Werdum @ -164.

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Odds For Lawler vs Shields Strikeforce Event

Posted on 06. Jun, 2009 by moneybags.

These MMA odds for Strikeforce Robbie Lawler vs Jake Shields are from Bodoglife a great place to see all the odds before the fight.

There are other places to bet on MMA as well Bodoglife.

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Strikeforce Robbie Lawler vs Jake Shields

Posted on 29. May, 2009 by moneybags.

Robbie Lawler vs Jake Shields

If you compare this fight to the Scott Smith fight that was a standup war where both fighters pretty much committed to not going to the mat. This fight is totally different. Lawler will own Shields on the feet, BUT, Shields will own Lawler on the ground and he will get the fight to the ground.

If by some miracle Shields gets completely tired and can’t get Lawler on his back he won’t win this fight, because his standup is not up to snuff with Lawler’s. However, if you look at how Shields handled heavy striker Paul Daley, even though Lawler is much more experienced, I can see this fight going the same way.

I like Shields to win.

Andrei Arlovski vs Brett Rogers

Brett Rogers will be the stronger fighter, but Arlovski will have the speed. I can see Andrei having the ability to slip some of “The Grim’s” punches. Andrei will also have the kicking advantage.

I like Andrei Arlovski to win a decision.

Nick “Bad Boy” Diaz vs Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith

To of my favorite former UFC fighters here. I love seeing this matchup actually as the compelling item will be if Diaz wants to play boxing or the ground game. Diaz will have a distinct advantage on the ground. Both of these fighters, as part of their game plan, take tremendous damage to their face. Smith unquestionably hits harder or appears to hit harder due to his slew of out cold knock outs on his resume. While Diaz has a “wear em down” style with highly accurate, efficient punching ability.

Tough tough call. Smith only wins this one via KO, but Diaz can win via dec, or submission, not likely a KO though as Smith has a granite chin as well. I’ll take Diaz here as he seems to have more ways to win.

Phil “New York Bad Ass” Baroni vs Joe “Diesel” Riggs

Joe Riggs if he has conditioning, he should win this one without problems.

Kevin “Monster” Randleman vs Mike Whitehead

If Randleman doesn’t come in shape Whitehead will be too much beef to handle.

I like Whitehead to win.

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Scott “Chin of Steel” Smith

Posted on 14. Apr, 2009 by moneybags.

I’m just rewatching the Smith vs Radach fight again and can’t get over the ending. Round 2 – 3 is just classic.

Round 2

Benji stuns Smith cold using a left hook with 2:38 left in the 2nd round. Smith is dazed on his feet and backs up into the cage. Radach chases.

Radach loads and fires a right straight that would put most people down. Radach lifts his back foot up which is probably the reason Smith doesn’t fold like oragami. Nevertheless it lands clean and causes Smith to drop for a desperation single leg.

Smith moves to body clinch, this is about 4 seconds later now from getting clocked. Benji Radach moves to standing guillotine with one arm in. You can see Smith wincing with 2:20 left.

Smith leg trips Radach and moves to takedown, but Radach has good hips and quickly turns out and on top of Smith. Radach has about one second where he tries for mount up against the cage when Smith quickly rolls out back to single leg.

The fight stalls up against the cage with Smith in a single leg and Radach gable gripped around the waist from above.

Herb Dean breaks them up.

Another jab another hook lands for Radach and another jab.

Benji leading with jabs then catches a right straight, but still respecting the power of Smith. Smith is bloodied and survives.

Round 3

Radach catches another over the top right hook. Smith looks energized. Radach’s footwork is good moving side to side. Smith stalking and catches a right cross. Benji backs up and rushes in for a takedown eats a body kick on his way in. Now its Smith’s turn at a standing guillotine. Radach is working a high crotch single and scoops Smith over his shoulder and twists him down. Fighters have been KO’d by this move. Smith rolls out, but Radach regains and holding Smith in the North South position. Radach inching towards another guillotine choke, but abandons it for body punches and a knee or two.

Herb Dean breaks em up.

2:50 left in the 3rd. Smith does not look tired. Smith catches Radach with glancing overhand right. Radach is mildly stunned. A left straight connects for Smith and Radach looks a little more hurt, but he is still throwing back with power. Radach lands a falling away left hook that stops Smith’s attack for the moment.

Less than 2 minutes to go — both fighters look tired. Both fighters bloodied up.

Radach throws a fading left hook near the cage and at the same time Smith does his shuffle forward 1-2 and the 2 lands clean knocking Radach to the floor face down. Smith follows with one punch from above and Herb Dean stops the fight.

Smith falls face first to the floor — from happiness — this time.

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Please Scott Smith Get Some Footwork and You Will Beat Everyone!

Posted on 11. Apr, 2009 by moneybags.

One of my favorite fighters since forever, and I picked him to beat Radach in the underdog role, I just hope he improves his footwork. The guy just has some of the best power to weight ratio punching ability that if he improved his footwork and some head movement he can beat anyone.

Smith requires an opponent to come at him a certain way. Radach could have won this fight if he played it smart. Radach is a warrior and didn’t want to win via takedowns and laying on Smith. Much respect .

Its possible that his power comes from fighting with his feet flat, but if he just bounced a little here and there and taps anyone they are going down. Its unbelieveable.

Scott Smith probably has one of the best highlight fight reels in all of mma. Its amazing that this fight topped the Pete Sell fight. I’m awestruck and happy to have won that one too .

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Updates To StrikeForce Card

Posted on 11. Apr, 2009 by moneybags.

Of course the main event of Frank Shamrock vs Nick Diaz fighting at a catch weight is still happening.

Frank Shamrock is the favorite in this one, but I like Diaz to win @ +150 over at BetUS or better yet +160 at Bodog.

Gilbert Melendez vs Rodrigo Damm – Rodrigo Damm is stepping in for Josh Thompson. I don’t have an opinion on this one.

Middleweights, Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith is still fighting Benji “Razor” Radach, which is the fight I am most excited to see.

Bodog has Scott Smith as the underdog +140. While BetUS has Smith at +120.

Chris “Cyborg” Santos is still fighting Hitomi “Girlfight Monster” Akano at 140lbs.

Brett “Grimm” Rogers vs. Abongo Humphrey is a fight that was added late to the card after I posted my Strike Force predictions.

I like Brett Rogers to win even with the -500 odds at both Bodog and BetUS.

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StrikeForce 18 Predictions

Posted on 16. Mar, 2009 by moneybags.

Strikeforce 18 takes place April 11th. You can watch it on Showtime 10pm est.

The main events of StrikeForce 18 include:

Frank Shamrock vs Nick Diaz

My rundown and pick for this fight can be found here.

Josh Thomson vs Gilbert Melendez

These two have fought before where Gilbert lost his belt to Josh back in June of 2008. Thomson is an all around solid fighter similar to a GSP. GSP of course is in his own realm, but Thomson is that type of fighter. Gilbert is really good on the ground and has some excellent submission escapes. Gilbert is extremely difficult to submit. Thomson tried several times in their last outing. The problem that Gilbert lacks in comparison to Thomson appears to be cardio and boxing. Gilbert likes to throw that jab and kinda looks like he is reaching, while not keeping his other hand up. Gilbert has relied on his takedowns and then using is dominant top control to TKO fighters. However, Thomson has excellent takedown defense, submission escapes, and striking.

I have to think this one is going to go decision again, but will Gilbert land his takedowns, or will Thomson get his? Thomsons was clearly the busier fighter in their last outing where Thomson actually took Gilbert down several times and rode his back trying to sink the rear naked choke. If Gilbert can get his takedowns I can see him pointing out a decision. However, Thomson will be too fast and will keep his belt.

Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith vs Benji “Razor” Radach

These two knockout artists should put on a great show. Smith has so many KO’s on his record he literally lives up to his nickname. Radach has quite a few as well and always walks forward. Smith doesn’t always walk forward and likes to counter punch. This should be interesting, because both have good takedown defense, but not great takedowns. Radach’s strength definitely lies with his boxing skill, and Smith’s is probably his Muay Thai, but his leg kicks don’t compare to the damage he has inflicted opponents in the cage with his hands.

Since Smith’s strength is counter punching and Radach is the always the walking forward fighter, I see Smith catching Radach and winning.

Chris “Cyborg” Santos vs Hitomi “Girlfight Monster” Akano

Chris Cyborg Santos is an incredible fighter. I don’t see her losing to anyone that even comes close to her except maybe Gina Carrano.

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StrikeForce Frank Shamrock vs Nick Diaz

Posted on 16. Mar, 2009 by moneybags.

Strikeforce 18 takes place April 11th. You can watch it on Showtime 10pm est.

Frank Shamrock vs Nick Diaz

This is an exciting fight because it could be the beginning of the end for Frank Shamrock’s career. Well technically the Cung Lee loss set that ball in motion. Nick Diaz has been susceptible to takedowns, so I could see Shamrock being able to take Nick to the ground and maybe going for one of his classic ankle locks early on while the fighters are dry. Other than that, Frank Shamrock is likely to get beat up on his feet, ala the Cung Lee fight. The only difference is that Cung is so dynamic with his feet that Diaz is missing that part of the striking ensemble. So because Nick’s kicks (nice rhyme?) won’t be keeping Shamrock at that third range, Frank should be able to get a few take downs. Diaz has complained of the scoring of takedowns, laying and praying as a winning tactic, and believes those methods of winning are downright pussy. Ok I added that last bit and those aren’t his words, but Nick would agree I’m sure.

Frank is not going to KO Nick and Nick has a chance of KO’ing Frank. As far as the ground game goes, I don’t think Shamrock’s experience in time provides an advantage over Diaz’ experience. Age is the biggest factor here and age may affect Shamrock’s cardio. Diaz won’t have that problem.
Therefore, I think the odds strongly favor a Nick Diaz victory.

Strengths and weaknesses for Frank Shamrock

Strengths: Wrestling, Ankle Locks
Weaknesses: Age, Cardio, Boxing

Strengths and weaknesses for Nick Diaz

Strengths: Jiu-Jitsu, Boxing, Cardio, Age, Ability to take punishment
Weaknesses: Age, Not stepping out after a 1-2 combo, Stubbornness, Mouth

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