UFC 110 Predictions

Posted on 10. Feb, 2010 by moneybags.

Live from Sydney, Australia – Saturday Feb 20th on PPV

Main Card

Antonio Nogueira (32-5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0-0
Is Cain’s top game big trouble for any fighter yes, but if there is any heavyweight where his strength’s put him in trouble, is against a heavy like Big Nog. Take downs? Sure he can get them. Submission defense? Might be a problem against a guy as slick as Nogueira. Plus, Nogueira’s boxing right now is at its best, and imo, its better than Cain’s.

Bodog has Cain Velasquez favored @ -125, but I like Nogueira to win w/ -105 odds

Bet on this fight

Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) vs.  Michael Bisping (18-2-0)
Bisping is going to try to get his licks and get out, but his best shot at winning is a ground game.

Bisping has fought one other fighter that is as zombieish as Silva and is as devastating puncher as Silva, that is Dan Henderson. They both have similar toughness and similar KO power. Bisping hasn’t been know as a KO puncher, but more of a finesse/overwhelming type fighter.

This fight has the odds favoring “The Axe Murderer” Silva @ -155. I think it could be a closer fight though as Bisping’s technical skills, speed, and smarts will have Silva chasing him all over the octagon.

Bisping is +125 @ Bodog, and I think he will take a decision victory

Bet on this fight

Joe Stevenson (31-10-0) vs.  George Sotiropoulos ( 11-2-0)
George’s top game imo is too strong. You have two good jiu-jitsu players, but Sotiropoulus will have height and reach. He is good on his feet. Stevenson, although not a 1 trick pony with a sick guillotine, but he is on the easier side to shut down.

If Stevenson can hurt Sotiropoulos early (by some miracle), then George is going to have a very hard time, as Stevenson is a good finisher and is very difficult to stop once he gets top control. Like I said though, at the upper echelon of MMA, Stevenson’s strengths, can be stopped rather easily.

Bodog has the Australian, Sotiropoulos @ +240 and I like him to win.

Bet on this fight

Keith Jardine (15-6-1) vs. Ryan Bader (10-0-0)
Jardine is the underdog in this one and I like Jardine here. His ability to crush legs and takeaway the takedown ability will be key.

Bader is trouble for most fighter’s due to his size, takedown defense, and takedown capabilities. Jardine though is equally trouble for most fighters due to his unpredictable style.

The way Bader’s standup is, allows Jardine to utilize his short hooks really well. I think it will be a problem for Bader.

Jardine is +125 and I like it.

Bet on this fight

Mirko  “Cro Cop” Filipović (25-7-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7-0) Anthony Perosh

Cro Cop is taking on an unknown who is taking the fight on two days notice. Not sure if this will carry odds or not. If they aren’t crazy, I’d take Cro Cop.

Bet on this fight

Preliminary Card

Elvis Sinosic (8-11-2) vs. Chris Haseman (20-16-0)
The battle of journeymen? Wow Elvis Sinosic is back. Very good on the UFC to get him in this fight as Elvis is from Australia. Elvis has been in the UFC for nearly 10 years now, but on and off. He has only one one fight out of his 7 in the UFC. However, he did sub Jeremy Horn in his prime. That was enough clout to have him come back despite losing so many fights in the Octagon.

Two of Australia’s local fighter’s who frankly haven’t fought in awhile with any reasonable consistency.

I’ll go with Elvis Sinosic here based on familiarity.

Stephan Bonnar (11-6-0) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1)
Bonnar is not a good finisher, but Soszynski does have a few finishing goto moves. If this fight goes to a decision, I do like Bonnar to take the victory.

Chris Lytle (27-17-5) vs. Brian Foster (15-4-0)
Foster is pretty good and shows promise. The UFC wants to put an exciting fight down under, they call up Chris Lytle, who puts on a show in every outing.

Foster has the youth, but Lytle has the ground game and the chin. Foster will stay in that pocket and trade with Lytle. That strategy favors Lytle imo.

C.B. Dollaway (9-2-0) vs. Goran Reljic (8-0-0)
Goran Reljic is such a great fighter. I like Reljic by submission.

James Te-Huna (11-4-0) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-6-0)
Not familiar with, so I will pass.

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UFC 109 Relentless Predictions

Posted on 31. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

February 6th Live on PPV

UFC 109 Main Card

Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman
As good as Coleman was, he is an incredibly slower version of himself. He beat Stephan Bonner on heart and a few takedowns. If Randy comes out anywhere near as good as he did in the Lesnar and Nogeuria fights, which both he lost, he should easily beat Coleman. Coleman, however, is probably training for this fight like he never has before. I don’t know this for sure, but always showed in Coleman’s fights that he never did proper modern training pre-fight. His cardio always fell short and his skillset never improved. Randy on the other hand has stair stepped upwards in the skill level as well as overall cardio.

Being a -550 favorite is a different story. I don’t love the odds for this one, because Couture is always susceptible to a KO, but I don’t think Coleman possesses that threat.

I’m going to be blown away if Coleman wins this fight. I like Randy to win and Bodog has Couture @ -550

Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen
I understand the odds here. I’m surprised they are not higher. Sonnen is a great overall fighter with a wrestler’s specialty, while Marquardt has speedily evolved into an elite complete fighter. Ever since his loss to Anderson Silva, its obvious he has been driven to push every bit of his already high skillset. Before the Anderson Silva Marquardt fought slower and just all around different.

Marquardt will be too much in this fight and will win.

I like Marquardt here to win and Bodog has Marquardt @ -525

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago
I think the difference in this fight is going to be the size and strength of Mike Swick. Thiago is a great overall fighter who a few fights ago KO’d Swick’s teammate Josh Koshcheck.

Strengths will reach and speed for Swick while the strengths for Thiago will be the ground game and submissions.

I don’t see how Swick loses this fight, so I lean that way.

Intertops has Swick @ -227

Demian Maia vs Dan Miller
As much of a fan I am of Dan Miller, I don’t know what he brings to this fight that Demian Maia can’t fend off. For sure, Dan Miller is the better striker. However, is he good enough to stop Demian Maia with strikes?

If Dan Miller can outstrike Maia, this fight is going to a decision and based on how the ground fighting is scored in the UFC, this puts Miller in the advantage.

Most likely neither fighter is going to submit the other due to their blackbelts in jiu-jitsu (Miller’s is fresh black color, and Maia’s is grey). Maia’s mma jiu-jitsu has shown to be absolutely the best in the Octagon thus far.

Based on the way ground game is scored, and Miller’s better stand up fighting experience, I like Dan Miller here in the underdog spot.

Bodog has Miller as +325 underdog

Matt Serra vs  Frank Trigg
I definitely would like to see Serra win this fight. If you haven’t seen his pre-fight UFC blogs on YouTube they are really funny. “Hey Longo! Where’s the TP buddy?”

If Trigg is going to win this fight its going to be with ground control. Serra isn’t going to be able to take Trigg down without jumping guard and this fight is likely going to decision.

Serra can win via a submissions, but it won’t be from the bottom.

In reality this fight is likely to go to a decision. Trigg doesn’t have the weapons to take Serra out, but Serra does have the weapons to take Trigg out.

Matt Serra is favored at Bodog @ -155, and I lean that way

UFC 109 Preliminary Card

Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz
Too much wrestling in Danzig’s corner and top game control, but Buchholz has a puncher’s chance.

Melvin Guillard  vs Ronnys Torres

Phillipe Nover vs  Rob Emerson
Seems like this is a great matchup. After Emerson’s last few fights, he has shown unbelieveable heart and overall improvement that has been blatantly noticeable even to the untrained eye.

Nover looked best on the TUF show, but hasn’t tasted victory since. Emerson is not the guy you want to go against when you’re up against the wall.

I like Emerson to win this fight.

No odds posted yet.

Brian Stann vs  Phil Davis

Tim Hague vs   Chris Tuchscherer

Mostapha Al-turk vs.  Rolles Gracie

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I Don’t Care About The Money, I Just Care About Being Right

Posted on 12. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

UFC Fight Night picks go 4-0. That is 7-0 over the past two events.

I have to say that I was very impressed with Tom Lawlor’s performance and he lost a very tough fought match and has nothing to be ashamed of. Simpson won on heart, conditioning, and points. Lawlor looked bigger and had excellent striking.

In the Diaz vs Maynard fight, after seeing how bad the reach advantage was I started to worry. However, the analysis was correct. Maynard would be more active and more accurate on the feet. He avoided the ground and took the decision. It was weird that one judge saw it 30-27 Maynard, and another saw 29-28 Diaz, but Maynard got the vote from the third judge taking the split decision. The reach was a big issue, and Diaz did some very predictable head movement. Maynard also did some predictable combos as well. Both could have fainted a little more and then their setups would’ve worked. Everytime Diaz ducked down, it looked like he was folding himself in half, Maynard should have exited the pocket with a hook to the side of the body he was exiting to. Or faint to uppercut would have caught Diaz. Instead of the loopers Diaz threw, he could have just thrown straight punches all night and it would have caused all kinds of trouble for Maynard.

The Evan Dunham / Efrain Escudero fight was great. Efrain came out ultra confident while not doing much thinking he is a technical puncher. Dunham is a zombie with more skills. If the zombie fighter does not have greater skills, the zombie fighter will likely lose because they will get picked apart. You look at the Simpson fight as an example. Greater wrestling skills, greater conditioning. In the end that is what won the match. Dunham locked on a sick arm bar, but really that became a shoulder lock submission before Escudero tapped with some serious arm damage. I swear I thought his arm was going to pop any second.

Amir Sadollah had too much arsenal for Brad Blackburn. All three judges scored it 30-27.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Posted on 08. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

Grey Maynard vs Nate Diaz

Grey Maynard gets to take revenge on Nate Diaz for the guillotine that cost Grey the prize on The Ultimate Fighter show.

Maynard is no longer the pure wrestler that could fall into submissions. Maynard is no longer the guy that didn’t have a stand up game. Maynard is a complete fighter and despite how much I like the Diaz brother’s fighting style and what they bring to the cage everytime. I think Maynard’s completeness here gives him a serious edge.

Diaz could potentially get tagged up badly on the feet. On the ground, Diaz will have an advantage as long as he doesn’t get balled up tightly and get punched in the face when in an awkward position.

Maynard has to watch out for the triangle and diverse neck choke options Diaz has.

I like Grey Maynard to win. Bodog has Grey Maynard @ -295

Efrain Escudero vs Evan Dunham

Both are undefeated. Escudero has been impressive with his last two fights, 1 being a sick knockout. I think this fight is different. Evan Dunham has probably the slight edge in competition faced. He recently beat Marcus Aurelio who was fighting on short notice. Dunham looked good though in that fight. He will have a reach advantage in this fight.

I like Evan Dunham to win. Bodog has Evan Dunham @ +220

Tom Lawlor vs Aaron Simpson

Tom Lawlor beat Aaron Simpson’s training partner, CB Dollaway in their last fight. A fight that I picked Dollaway to win. Lawlor literally caught CB in a guillotine in the opening seconds and was choked unconscious inside 30 seconds. It ain’t happening again. Simpson has a good stand up game and is very tough.

I like Aaron Simpson to win. Bodog has Aaron Simpson @ -260

Amir Sadollah vs Brad Blackburn

Amir’s knees may be a problem for Blackburn, but Blackburn likes the fight on the mat controlling the clock just like any wrestler would. I would give Sadollah a distinct advantage on the feet here. Throw in his ability to snag two deep armbars on wrestler CB Dollaway, I think you have a hard time not thinking Sadollah will win this one.

I like Amir Sadollah to win. BetUS has Amir Sadollah @ -160

Chris Leben vs Jay Silva

Avoid.

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UFC 108 Predictions

Posted on 23. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

UFC 108 takes place Sat, Jan 02, 2010

Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva

It seems to me that the skillset of Evans is slightly better than Silva’s. This is a really even matchup, but like I said, slight edge to Evans.

Bodog has Evans @ -215 and Thiago Silva @ +175

Joe Lauzon vs Sam Stout

Sam Stout has shown very much improved ground game in his fight against Matt Wiman and Rich Clementi two guys who like to smother their opponents and submit them. However, both fights Stout was able to take the fight to a decision. In this fight you have another smotherer in Joe Lauzon against a good striker Stout. You can look to the Jeremy Stephens vs Lauzon fight in Tampa earlier this year as a possible outcome to this fight.

Jeremy had alot of shots on Lauzon that put him in danger, but Joe weathered the storm in a smart fashion avoiding every bomb and eventually secured a great armbar. Same game plan here for Lauzon. Avoid the strikes on the feet and when the fight gets to the ground pancake the guy and control the fight. Lauzon will control the fight on the ground he has excellent skills there and are underrated. Stout is probably a better striker in terms of boxer, but less lethal than Stephens. So if Stout keeps this thing in a boxing match style fight, Stout can win this one.

I like Lauzon here to control the fight on the ground. Who knows if he finds the submission or not.

Bodog has Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon @ -295 and Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout @ +235

Junior “Cigano” dos Santos vs Gilbert “The Hurricane” Yvel

Both of these guys are great stand up strikers. dos Santos is the boxer and Yvel is the kickboxer. Yvel has loads of fight experience and has had suspect cardio and ground game against Josh Barnett semi-recently.
dos Santos train with Nogueira’s, but we have never seen his ground game in the cage.

It seems likely that Junior dos Santos should win based on his previous fights, but dos Santo’s strengths are Yvel’s. When you have two equals here in one area, and possibly Yvel gets the edge in the striking department to begin with, the dog bet seems logical. Therefore, Yvel.

Bodog has Junior “Cigano” dos Santos @ -285 and Gilbert “The Hurricane” Yvel +225

Martin Kampmann vs Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann

Kampmann is coming off a loss to Paul Daley and Volkmann is coming off a loss to Paulo Thiago. I was impressed with Volkmann’s submission defense and Volkmann kept that fight interesting and put Thiago in danger a few times. Volkmann is likely to be a punching bag in this fight, but on the ground, Volkmann I think has a strong edge.

If the odds get really skewed here, I would take Volkmann, but they are not, so Kampmann is where I’d be.

Bodog has Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann @ -225 and Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann @ +180

Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko vs Steve “The Robot” Cantwell

Vladimir has looked boring, imo, in most of his fights. He has great top control and can pummel fighters into submission. His standup is not great and he is going up against a really good striker in Cantwell.

I think this is a very interesting play with Cantwell the much younger fighter as the underdog.

Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko @ -200 and Steve “The Robot” Cantwell @ +160

Mike “Quicksand” Pyle vs Jake Ellenberger

This fight is set at even and I like Jake Ellenberger to win.

Bodog has Ellenberger @ -115 and Pyle @ -115

Cole “Magrino” Miller vs Dan “The Upgrade” Lauzon

Both Lauzon brothers are fighting on the same card here. Cole Miller’s strengths are his length and reach as well as the ground game. Lauzon probably wants to be on top of Miller dishing out GnP which is where he as at home winning several fights via TKO. Lauzon is a jiu-jitsu specialist as well as Miller. So I’m not looking for any submissions here. Miller actually likes fighting off his back, and Lauzon is the better finisher on top that Miller is.

Seems simple to me. Dan “The Upgrade” Lauzon giving both brothers a victory, “making history,” and something Mike Goldberg will able to get excited about all night. This might be my favorite play on the card.

Bodog has Miller @ -165 and Lauzon @ +135

Mark Munoz vs Ryan Jensen

Munoz simple.

Bodog has Munoz @ -340 and Jensen @ +260

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UFC 107 Recap and Thoughts

Posted on 13. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

1. BJ Penn looked his best. BJ turned a “ram charging,” “ultra intense” Diego Sanchez and totally turned him into office furniture. It was like Diego was sitting in the middle of the ring and BJ was running around him in the Matrix during the schoolyard scene. You could have scored every round a 10-8. BJ Penn’s trainer after every round says, “He doesn’t belong in there with you. Lets finish this already.” The 5th round rolls around and BJ finishes the fight. With a FREEKING high kick that opens up a gash the size of the gap between the ring girl’s thighs. Fight over. When was the last time BJ even threw a kick?

Diego tried to take BJ down, but BJ made the takedown defense look effortless. BJ likes his back against the cage. Its a protective measure where he uses it as leverage, to keep his feet more solidly planted. This is something different than probably all other fighters are taught today.

2. Frank Mir threw 1 punch and put Kongo face down on the mat and as “the Kongo” tried to recover, Mir sank the guillotine in and put Kongo to sleep. He was out a good minute. Frank Mir’s punch on Kongo will put him BACK on the UFC intro highlight reel. The last time he made that reel was his striking against Wes Simms. Not only that, but it puts a Lesnar rematch back in focus.

3. Kenny Florian’s boxing looked great. Guida’s striking looked completely ineffective. Guida has some of the best cardio in all of MMA though. Florian won via TKO in another elbow smashing cut. How many is this for Florian? Guida did not get the takedown on Florian.

4. Belcher TKO’d Gouveia. A great 1 round match where both fighters almost won via TKO, but each fighter came back swinging until Belcher just caught Wilson a few more times and folded him up.

5. I wouldn’t say robbed is the right word as the match was razor thing, but I think Paul Buentello beat Stefan Struve. Buentello clearly lost the first round as Struve got the legs locked around the body and spent the whole round trying to RNC Buentello. As the round was in its final seconds, Buentello reversed it and closed with a thundering double chop, not seen since the UFC Dreamcast game. You remember that game system right? Hey Mikey Burnett was on that thing. Round two and Buentello cracked Struve very badly to where Struve almost injures his own knee as he folded like my 1 year old’s LEGO tower. Round 2 for Buentello. Round 3 was close and Buentello didn’t look as busy, but he controlled the ring and got the better of the punches. However, Struve landed a bunch of leg kicks to Buentello’s front leg. On my card, Buentello won, and Struve agreed after the fight. Winner – me.

6. TJ Grant beat Burns via TKO. Like I thought he was too much for Burns.

Alot of people have been complaining about the last two cards being weak and this card was worth the price. However, like I’ve said before, all cards to me are exciting, this one was just a little better than the usual. I still can’t believe how dominating BJ Penn looked.

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UFC 107 Undercard Predictions

Posted on 10. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Pierce is a good fighter, but against the Zombie Jon Fitch, I can’t see Fitch losing this one.
Fitch to win.

Bodog has Fitch @ -550 and Pierce @ +375

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

Stefan Struve the tall Dutchman, will eat alot of Buentello’s punches. Buentello is probably tied with Roy “Big Country” Nelson for worst physique, but Buentello is a great boxer and by great, I mean a lot better than guys that are ripped and muscled up. Stefan is a giant target for Buentello. Struve just got leveled by Cigano, and Buentello is probably right there as a devastating striker.

Struve’s strong points are his length, reach, submissions, and knees. Before you think spider like Struve will get his limbs around Buentello, think again. Buentello hasn’t been submitted in 8 years.

I like Buentello to win.

Bodog has Buentello @ -110 and Struve @ -120

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia

This is a really tight match where both opponents do not display humongous advantages over the other. Guoveia sure the ground game maybe slightly, and Belcher probably a bit better of a striker. If I had to point out a distinct weakness it would be Gouveia’s wrestling in comparison. Belcher is very good at getting back to his feet and utilizes the wizzer every chance he gets.

Either Belcher via decision or Gouveia by KO – I’m avoiding this one.

Bodog has Belcher @ -125 and Gouveia @ -105

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson

Wiman.

Bodog has Wiman @ -340 and Nelson @ +260

Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch

Ever since that Tapout show, Hendricks has been shining in every match. Recently Hendricks TKO’d Amir Sadollah. Ricardo Funch is undefeated and is fighting for the first time in the UFC. Hendricks wrestling will be too much. I like Hendricks to win.

Bodog has Hendricks @ -500 and Funch @ +325

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares

Palhares is a jiu-jitsu master and Linhares is the better striker, but good at jiu-jitsu as well. Palhares just has an advantage there.
I’m avoiding this one.

Bodog has Palhares @ -340 and Linhares @ +260

DaMarques Johnson vs Edgar Johnson

Avoiding

Bodog has DeMarques @ +205 and Edgar @ -265

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant

I think TJ Grant will be too much for Burns on the ground.

Bodog has Burns @ EVEN and Grant @ -130

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Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida UFC 107 Prediction

Posted on 09. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

Its another Clay Guida fight! Now you know at least one fight will be entertaining no matter what happens on this card (Thank you Jon Jones for getting DQ’d – damnit!).

Clay Guida is an oxygen tank, even though if you had Clay’s hair you wouldn’t be able to breath from underneath it – he can. Kenny Florian is a more methodical fighter that his style is almost as simple as LEGOS. Strike enough to throw the opponent’s original game plan off and then swarm for a finish. Kenny finishes fights and goes after that kill when the opportunity strikes more than most fighters. Diego Sanchez is another.

In a striking match here Kenny is going to do more damage than Clay will do that I am certain of. However, Clay can win with body slams and time on the ground and controlling Kenny keeping him there. In the judges eyes, laying on top with rabbit punches scores points. Kenny’s back is highly likely to touch the canvas in this fight. Will Kenny be able to deliver a patented razor elbow to Guida’s brow? Or will Florian be able to display great jiu-jitsu and submit Guida. Not likely. That is not an insult to Florian’s skill, its just that Clay is so good at escaping submissions aside from the Huerta choke sub, Guida knows what he is doing to avoid trouble.

In fact you could use the equation, Huerta > Guida, Florian > Huerta, thus Florian > Guida?

I think this is valid as Kenny’s striking will cause more damage throughout the fight and will give Florian the win on the cards. Like I said, judge’s decision, because neither of these guys are going to KO or TKO by way of striking the other. They are both too good in their respective areas and not devastating enough in others for this fight to NOT go to the cards.

Kenny could win via TKO cut, submission.
Clay wins via ground control.

Everyone has odds for this fight. Click the buttons on the right to see them.

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Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo UFC 107 Prediction

Posted on 09. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

You got yourselves maybe the 3rd or 4th best heavyweight submission fighter in MMA and probably a top 10 heavyweight striker. Kongo has put plenty of people away when he can get hands on them. Kongo has an excellent right straight and his long limbs allow him to reach people without making himself off center. This advantage allows more of his punches to be more dangerous, more often than other fighters. However, Mir showed a light years leap in his stand up game when he beat Nogueira (Nog with a staph infection).

In Jeet Kune Do there are 3 ranges. The kicking range, the punching range, and the grappling range. Kongo wants to stay in the kicking range and come in and out of the outer band of the punching range. Mir needs to be on the inner section of the punching range and all over the grappling range.

I think if Kongo is going to win he needs to keep throwing leg kicks and really wear Mir down, but only when Kongo has his back off the cage. Mir is not good at shooting, but if him and Kongo are up against the cage, Mir is good in the clinch and could seem him go for a rolling kneebar like he did against Brock in the second fight, or a gable grip takedown can happen there.

The biggest problem in a ground situation for Mir will be Kongo on top. Remember, Kongo is a tall dude, so if he is postured up, its a very dangerous situation as Mir will be unable to grab his neck or getting his hands underneath to get some reprieve. He is also long enough to stand up out of an arm bar attempt more so than other fighters. Mir is very aware though and if is on his way to losing an armbar off his back will roll to the ankle. I think this is the most dangerous spot that Mir needs to worry about in the entire fight. Mir needs to avoid having Kongo in his guard early in the fight. The later 2nd and 3rd round will have a less aggressive conditioned Kongo there making him susceptible to armbars.

If Kongo shows surprising submission defense, this is probably going to go Kongo’s way. Because I don’t think Mir wins a top game decision, or will do more damage in this fight. However, if Mir gets in the top position, its either going to go the way of RNC, after a Kongo scramble attempt or armbar, probably very quickly. I don’t think Kongo can get away from Mir on top.

Remember that Kongo’s ground game is rather aweful (decent sprawl), but fighter’s usually then move to the side of hips and turn him over. Mir is a ground specialist, so no matter how hard Kongo has trained on the ground for this fight, its not going to bring him up to a level that will save him from getting subbed. Kongo has to avoid those bad positioned and run away from the close moments of subbage. Has Kongo escaped a submission before? I think he sweeped a fighter before from the bottom.

Mir will get Kongo backpedaling for a few runs with his new punching combos, this is where Mir needs to change levels and get that takedown or pull guard.

Kongo has more ways to win in this fight, but I don’t think he will get there. Due to the overwhelming ground advantage, I think Mir will cut Kongo off and get the sub.

Bookmaker has Mir @ -200 and Kongo @ +160

BetUS has Mir @ -200 and Kongo @ +160

Bet365 has Mir @ -200 and Kongo @ +162

Intertops has Mir @ -200 and Kongo @ +150

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BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez UFC 107

Posted on 06. Dec, 2009 by moneybags.

BJ “The Prodigy” Penn vs Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez at UFC 107

If I had to pick on nickname’s it would be “The Prodigy.” If I have to pick on cardio it would be Diego Sanchez. If I had to pick on skill, it would have to be BJ Penn.

Since BJ Penn’s loss to Matt Hughes, (remember when he got crucifixed?), Penn has shown an incredible improvement in cardio and boxing ability ever since. Many say its the lighter, natural weight class that affords him to utilize his natural skill. Mainly because the fighters in the welterweight class carry more muscle than BJ did and BJ was carrying more weight just to get up there. If I had to compare Diego Sanchez to past competitors that Penn has faced, the current “Sanchez 2.0″ has to be ranked in the top 4 BJ has ever faced. However, does “BJ 2.0″ have too much overall skill for “Sanchez 2.0?”

This is really going to be a great fight, unlike the Penn, Stevenson match. As great as its going to be, I think BJ is going to own Diego on the ground. Maybe it will come in the 2nd round, maybe the third, maybe even the fourth, but BJ will likely get Diego’s back at some point and I predict he uses his leg to trap an arm like he did against Jens Pulver and Joe Stevenson. Diego will have the faster strikes for sure. However, BJ’s jab now is so good, I mean really good, that he can keep Diego at bay to where Diego will come up short with his punches. Thus, setting up his power shots. Few fighters have excellent setup ability in the striking department. Its overused to say a fighter has improved, but BJ’s jab setup has elevated to a whole new level. Its going to be a problem for Sanchez.

Both fighters are excellent finishers.

If BJ’s cardio is lacking for this fight, then Sanchez can win this one. If BJ comes in top shape, and he will need to, BJ wins.

Strengths for BJ Penn:
Boxing, Takedown Defense, and largest advantage will be jiu-jitsu, submissions, sub defense, and overall ground game

Strengths for Diego Sanchez:
Leg kicks as BJ rarely throws them, conditioning, and fight pace.

Odds for the Penn / Sanchez fight are:

Sportsbook.com as BJ Penn @ -340 and Diego @ +260

Bodog.com as BJ Penn @ -340 and Diego @ +260

Bookmaker.com as BJ Penn @ -280 and Diego @ +220

BetUS.com as BJ Penn @ -300 and Diego @ +220

Unibet.com as BJ Penn @ 1.35 and Diego @ 2.90

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