UFC 112 Invincible Apr 10, 2010 Predictions

Posted on 05. Apr, 2010 by moneybags.

Main Card

Anderson Silva (25-4-0) vs Damian Maia (12-1-0)
Not even close. Anderson Silva wins unless he decides he wants to play the jiu jitsu game. He will own Maia on the feet. Maybe Maia can win on the ground he certainly is more than capable and will probably be the worst ground threat he has faced in the cage yet. If the odds are EXTREMELY skewed its worth it to pick Maia. Otherwise, Silva.

BJ Penn (15-5-1)  vs. Frankie Edgar (11-1-0)
Its going to be entertaining, as Frankie Edgar’s wrestling and boxing are excellent. However, BJ Penn carries power and takedown defense better than anyone in his division. Frankie Edgar is probably the best BJ Penn has faced in quite awhile at this weight. There just isn’t anyone in the division that can fight like BJ. Edgar is great against other fighters, but based on the past fights of Penn, he should make Edgar look silly. BJ Penn will win.

Matt Hughes (43-7-0) vs. Renzo Gracie (13-6-1)
Tough call here. Hughes is severely on the downside of his career compared to where he was just a few years ago. Renzo despite also being in his twilight of his career has always been tenacious and will have revenge on his mind for this one. The odds are -400 for Hughes and +300 for Gracie. I would take Gracie with those odds.

Terry Etim (14-2-0)  vs Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4-0)
Should be an awesome match. No pick.

Kendall Grove (11-6-0) vs Mark Munoz (7-1-0)
Munoz could potentially control this whole fight as long as he doesn’t fight dumb. At -170 looks interesting. Should be a good fight though.

Preliminary Card

Alexander Gustafsson (9-0-0) vs. Phil Davis (5-0-0)

Jon Madsen (3-0-0) vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (6-5-0)

Paul Taylor (10-5-1) vs. John Gunderson (22-7-0)

Nick Osipczak (5-0-0) vs Rick Story (9-3-0)

DaMarques Johnson(10-7-0)  vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1)

Paul Kelly (9-2-0) vs Matt Veach (11-1-0)
I hope they somehow show this one on the undercard. Very close match, but I like Veach based on the tough fight he had against Frank Edgar.

Continue Reading

UFC 111 Sat. March 27th 2010

Posted on 12. Mar, 2010 by moneybags.

Main Card:
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2-0)  vs. Dan Hardy ( 23-6-0 )
The odds show Georges St Pierre as a huge favorite. Imo, this is a closer fight than most think. Hardy has excellent boxing, great takedown defense, and from what I’ve seen pretty good wrestling.

However, GSP’s wrestling is top notch, probably is faster and overall more technical. He might be the stronger fighter here.

They both carry KO power, but the difference could be the speed and wrestling of GSP.

I think GSP will win, but not worth a bet with GSP favored at -800. In fact its almost worth the bet for Hardy at +500. If you must bet on UFC 111 and want to bet with GSP over Dan Hardy, do it at Bodog.

Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-40)  vs.  Shane Carwin (11-0-0)

Mir will probably own on the ground, and the standup probably is a tilt towards Carwin.

Frank Mir is a slight favorite, definitely warranted. If you remember in the Gonzaga, Carwin fight, Gonzaga, before being KOd really put Carwin in some serious danger. Mir with his improved boxing could equally do the same. However, Mir is not a takedown artist in the cage, couple that with Carwin’s excellent wrestling ability and this fight tells me that its going to be a standup war. Mir must have a serious beard to have not been knocked out by Lesnar, so I will put the odds of him being knocked out by Carwin, slightly lower than I would normallly, but Carwin is a big powerful fighter – no doubt.

I favor the favorite (see what I did there?) in this close match. Frank Mir. +130 for Carwin, -160 for Mir at Sportsbook.com for UFC 111.

Jon Fitch (21-3-0)  vs. Thiago Alves  (16-6-0)
Oh this is going to be good. With the much improved overall game of Thiago Alves, I think Fitch’s grinding style could go down. Thiago has power, strength, speed. Fitch has cardio, wrestling, ridiculous top control.

I think Alves will win this UFC 111 fight and is a slight favorite at Sportsbook.com against Jon Fitch.

Ricardo Almeida (11-3-0)  vs. Matt Brown (11-7-0)
Will Almeida be able to deal with Matt Brown’s striking? I think so. I like Almeida to continue his win streak and win via submission.

Almeida is a favorite at Sportsbook.com I like him to win this fight at UFC 111.

Jake Ellenberger (22-5-0)  vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
I like betting with Ellenberger because he never quits. Saunders on the other hand is so hit or miss. However, Saunders reach and height here could be a massive advantage. Its also a problem, because Ellenberger is great at takedowns.

I’m going with Ben Saunders to win at UFC 111.

Jim Miller (16-2-0)  vs. Mark Bocek (8-2-0)
Better striking, better overall MMA game, Papa Jim’s.

I think Jim Miller wins this one on striking. Both are jiu jitsu aces, but Jim Miller’s speed and striking are better than Bocek. Not sure if Bocek is slightly better at the ground game or not. Miller rarely goes there and concentrates on his boxing.

I don’t know what the odds are, but I like Jim Miller to win at UFC 111.

Nate Diaz (11-5-0)  vs. Rory Markham (16-5-0)
I’m always taking a Diaz brother. Go Nate!

Rousimar Palhares (10-2-0)  vs. Tomasz Drwal (17-2-1)
Palhares is favored, but I like Tomasz Drwal. Palhares should have a TREMENDOUS ground advantage. However, his standup is weak, where Drwal’s is not.

Drwal is an underdog at Sportsbook.com and I like him to win at UFC 111.

Kurt Pellegrino (14-4-0)  vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
I don’t know of Camoes, but Pellegrino has really upped his game. I like Pellegrino in the dark here.

Matt Riddle (3-1-0)  vs. Greg Soto (7-0-0)
No opinion.

Continue Reading

UFC 110 Predictions

Posted on 10. Feb, 2010 by moneybags.

Live from Sydney, Australia – Saturday Feb 20th on PPV

Main Card

Antonio Nogueira (32-5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (7-0-0
Is Cain’s top game big trouble for any fighter yes, but if there is any heavyweight where his strength’s put him in trouble, is against a heavy like Big Nog. Take downs? Sure he can get them. Submission defense? Might be a problem against a guy as slick as Nogueira. Plus, Nogueira’s boxing right now is at its best, and imo, its better than Cain’s.

Bodog has Cain Velasquez favored @ -125, but I like Nogueira to win w/ -105 odds

Bet on this fight

Wanderlei Silva (32-10-1) vs.  Michael Bisping (18-2-0)
Bisping is going to try to get his licks and get out, but his best shot at winning is a ground game.

Bisping has fought one other fighter that is as zombieish as Silva and is as devastating puncher as Silva, that is Dan Henderson. They both have similar toughness and similar KO power. Bisping hasn’t been know as a KO puncher, but more of a finesse/overwhelming type fighter.

This fight has the odds favoring “The Axe Murderer” Silva @ -155. I think it could be a closer fight though as Bisping’s technical skills, speed, and smarts will have Silva chasing him all over the octagon.

Bisping is +125 @ Bodog, and I think he will take a decision victory

Bet on this fight

Joe Stevenson (31-10-0) vs.  George Sotiropoulos ( 11-2-0)
George’s top game imo is too strong. You have two good jiu-jitsu players, but Sotiropoulus will have height and reach. He is good on his feet. Stevenson, although not a 1 trick pony with a sick guillotine, but he is on the easier side to shut down.

If Stevenson can hurt Sotiropoulos early (by some miracle), then George is going to have a very hard time, as Stevenson is a good finisher and is very difficult to stop once he gets top control. Like I said though, at the upper echelon of MMA, Stevenson’s strengths, can be stopped rather easily.

Bodog has the Australian, Sotiropoulos @ +240 and I like him to win.

Bet on this fight

Keith Jardine (15-6-1) vs. Ryan Bader (10-0-0)
Jardine is the underdog in this one and I like Jardine here. His ability to crush legs and takeaway the takedown ability will be key.

Bader is trouble for most fighter’s due to his size, takedown defense, and takedown capabilities. Jardine though is equally trouble for most fighters due to his unpredictable style.

The way Bader’s standup is, allows Jardine to utilize his short hooks really well. I think it will be a problem for Bader.

Jardine is +125 and I like it.

Bet on this fight

Mirko  “Cro Cop” Filipović (25-7-2) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-7-0) Anthony Perosh

Cro Cop is taking on an unknown who is taking the fight on two days notice. Not sure if this will carry odds or not. If they aren’t crazy, I’d take Cro Cop.

Bet on this fight

Preliminary Card

Elvis Sinosic (8-11-2) vs. Chris Haseman (20-16-0)
The battle of journeymen? Wow Elvis Sinosic is back. Very good on the UFC to get him in this fight as Elvis is from Australia. Elvis has been in the UFC for nearly 10 years now, but on and off. He has only one one fight out of his 7 in the UFC. However, he did sub Jeremy Horn in his prime. That was enough clout to have him come back despite losing so many fights in the Octagon.

Two of Australia’s local fighter’s who frankly haven’t fought in awhile with any reasonable consistency.

I’ll go with Elvis Sinosic here based on familiarity.

Stephan Bonnar (11-6-0) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (18-9-1)
Bonnar is not a good finisher, but Soszynski does have a few finishing goto moves. If this fight goes to a decision, I do like Bonnar to take the victory.

Chris Lytle (27-17-5) vs. Brian Foster (15-4-0)
Foster is pretty good and shows promise. The UFC wants to put an exciting fight down under, they call up Chris Lytle, who puts on a show in every outing.

Foster has the youth, but Lytle has the ground game and the chin. Foster will stay in that pocket and trade with Lytle. That strategy favors Lytle imo.

C.B. Dollaway (9-2-0) vs. Goran Reljic (8-0-0)
Goran Reljic is such a great fighter. I like Reljic by submission.

James Te-Huna (11-4-0) vs. Igor Pokrajac (21-6-0)
Not familiar with, so I will pass.

Continue Reading

UFC 109 Relentless Predictions

Posted on 31. Jan, 2010 by moneybags.

February 6th Live on PPV

UFC 109 Main Card

Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman
As good as Coleman was, he is an incredibly slower version of himself. He beat Stephan Bonner on heart and a few takedowns. If Randy comes out anywhere near as good as he did in the Lesnar and Nogeuria fights, which both he lost, he should easily beat Coleman. Coleman, however, is probably training for this fight like he never has before. I don’t know this for sure, but always showed in Coleman’s fights that he never did proper modern training pre-fight. His cardio always fell short and his skillset never improved. Randy on the other hand has stair stepped upwards in the skill level as well as overall cardio.

Being a -550 favorite is a different story. I don’t love the odds for this one, because Couture is always susceptible to a KO, but I don’t think Coleman possesses that threat.

I’m going to be blown away if Coleman wins this fight. I like Randy to win and Bodog has Couture @ -550

Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen
I understand the odds here. I’m surprised they are not higher. Sonnen is a great overall fighter with a wrestler’s specialty, while Marquardt has speedily evolved into an elite complete fighter. Ever since his loss to Anderson Silva, its obvious he has been driven to push every bit of his already high skillset. Before the Anderson Silva Marquardt fought slower and just all around different.

Marquardt will be too much in this fight and will win.

I like Marquardt here to win and Bodog has Marquardt @ -525

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago
I think the difference in this fight is going to be the size and strength of Mike Swick. Thiago is a great overall fighter who a few fights ago KO’d Swick’s teammate Josh Koshcheck.

Strengths will reach and speed for Swick while the strengths for Thiago will be the ground game and submissions.

I don’t see how Swick loses this fight, so I lean that way.

Intertops has Swick @ -227

Demian Maia vs Dan Miller
As much of a fan I am of Dan Miller, I don’t know what he brings to this fight that Demian Maia can’t fend off. For sure, Dan Miller is the better striker. However, is he good enough to stop Demian Maia with strikes?

If Dan Miller can outstrike Maia, this fight is going to a decision and based on how the ground fighting is scored in the UFC, this puts Miller in the advantage.

Most likely neither fighter is going to submit the other due to their blackbelts in jiu-jitsu (Miller’s is fresh black color, and Maia’s is grey). Maia’s mma jiu-jitsu has shown to be absolutely the best in the Octagon thus far.

Based on the way ground game is scored, and Miller’s better stand up fighting experience, I like Dan Miller here in the underdog spot.

Bodog has Miller as +325 underdog

Matt Serra vs  Frank Trigg
I definitely would like to see Serra win this fight. If you haven’t seen his pre-fight UFC blogs on YouTube they are really funny. “Hey Longo! Where’s the TP buddy?”

If Trigg is going to win this fight its going to be with ground control. Serra isn’t going to be able to take Trigg down without jumping guard and this fight is likely going to decision.

Serra can win via a submissions, but it won’t be from the bottom.

In reality this fight is likely to go to a decision. Trigg doesn’t have the weapons to take Serra out, but Serra does have the weapons to take Trigg out.

Matt Serra is favored at Bodog @ -155, and I lean that way

UFC 109 Preliminary Card

Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz
Too much wrestling in Danzig’s corner and top game control, but Buchholz has a puncher’s chance.

Melvin Guillard  vs Ronnys Torres

Phillipe Nover vs  Rob Emerson
Seems like this is a great matchup. After Emerson’s last few fights, he has shown unbelieveable heart and overall improvement that has been blatantly noticeable even to the untrained eye.

Nover looked best on the TUF show, but hasn’t tasted victory since. Emerson is not the guy you want to go against when you’re up against the wall.

I like Emerson to win this fight.

No odds posted yet.

Brian Stann vs  Phil Davis

Tim Hague vs   Chris Tuchscherer

Mostapha Al-turk vs.  Rolles Gracie

Continue Reading

Full Tilt Poker No Longer A Sponsor Of UFC and UFC Fighters

Posted on 24. Mar, 2009 by moneybags.

The UFC/Zuffa contacted fighter managers today to tell them Full Tilt Poker is no longer allowed on fighter’s shorts/banners/anything.

MMAPayout.com has more on the issue.

Continue Reading

Top 10 Reasons Why Georges St. Pierre Is The Best Pound For Pound Fighter

Posted on 01. Feb, 2009 by moneybags.

These are the top 10 reasons why Georges St. Pierre is the best pound for pound mixed martial artist in the world right now.

1. GSP decimated BJ Penn at BJ Penn’s best for 4 rounds before it was stopped short. Nobody had beaten up BJ this way before (not Matt Hughes) and not after BJ has been prepared like this before.

2. GSP dominated Jon Fitch for 5 rounds in a way that nobody has ever been able to do before or duplicate afterwards and probably never will for the rest of his career.

3. He out wrestled Josh Koscheck and dominated him in a way that nobody has been able to duplicate.

4. After losing the first round in GSP/BJ Penn 1, he came back to win the second 2 rounds and win the fight.

5. Avenged loss against Matt Hughes and Matt Sera in a ridiculously dominating fashion where the fight ended both in TKOs.

6. Dominated and beat up Sean Sherk when he was at the top of his game.

7. His diversity of strikes can only be matched between, Lyoto Machida, and Anderson Silva.

8. Has a balanced win record between 8 TKO’s, 4 submissions, and 5 decisions. He isn’t a one trick pony.

9. Anderson Silva lost to Ryo Chonan via flying heel hook and Fedor’s division is not as deep or filled with quality opponents as the welterweight ranks are.

10. Its the overused cliche that he has improved in every fight. However, GSP HAS truly improved beyond levels where other fighters have improved upon. Every fighter improves from fight to fight, however, his improvement appears to be leaps and bounds above others.

11. He perfected his craft with performances in Bloodsport, Kickboxer, before becoming the champion he is today. Seriously, he could be the next Van Damme.

Continue Reading